In the Future, You'll Access the Web Everywhere, Not Just From Your Desk

My earliest memories of accessing the internet mostly take place in my family's "office," where we had a desktop computer attached to a modem. Back then, rooms like this were entryways to the web, and in like fashion, most of us began our "surfing" with portals that attempted to categorize web content in order to create helpful starting points for users. Since then, new search algorithms, laptop computers, wireless networking, and newer mobile devices have made location and "starting point" irrelevant to interacting with the web. In fact, current data suggests that web use away from your desk, whether it be at home or work, is quickly eclipsing the older, one-point-of-entry paradigm.

It's fairly likely that you own a phone capable of sending and receiving email, accessing and viewing webpages, and even running web applications that allow you to access social networks like Twitter and Facebook. If you don't, my guess is that you probably will soon enough. You may even own other devices that connect wirelessly to the web, like the iPod touch or the Kindle.

I am among 28.5 million active subscribers to mobile networks using a BlackBerry device. Initially, I found that number to be pretty staggering. That is, until I saw some data pertaining to the iPhone: As of March, 2009, a total of 21.4 million iPhones had been sold, roughly 30% of which were sold in the United States alone. Bearing in mind that the iPhone was only released in December, 2007 (about a year and a half ago), and the original BlackBerry was released in 2002, these numbers suggest a steep increase in mobile device adoption in general. Whether this jump was due to Apple releasing the right device at the right time or people feeling more comfortable with mobile web use now that they can use an Apple device is hard to tell. The Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project 2009 survey's conclusions fall in line with the apparent connection between the iPhone (remember, released in December, 2007) and increasing mobile web use:

"The report also finds rising levels of Americans using the internet on a mobile handset. One-third of Americans (32%) have used a cell phone or Smartphone to access the internet for emailing, instant-messaging, or information-seeking. This level of mobile internet is up by one-third since December 2007, when 24% of Americans had ever used the internet on a mobile device. On the typical day, nearly one-fifth (19%) of Americans use the internet on a mobile device, up substantially from the 11% level recorded in December 2007. That’s a growth of 73% in the 16 month interval between surveys."

At this point, mobile browsing is not very sophisticated, and therefore probably not the main draw for users accessing the web on mobile devices. The combination of small screens, inconsistent input options, slow connections, and the lack of web content optimized for mobile browsers makes browsing the web from a mobile device browser a pretty clumsy, unpredictable, and frustrating experience, especially if you're not using an iPhone. However, applications written for mobile environments that deal with specific, limited sets of data, such as Google's mobile apps, specific device applications for Twitter and Facebook, or the millions of applications in the iPhone apps store, are more likely the future of mobile web use.

The extension of the web will not be driven solely by personal mobile devices, but also by interfaces in transportation vehicles, homes, clothing and other products. In some cases, the nature of the web enhancement may benefit marketing initiatives, such as web-connected grocery store "VIP" cards, which will continue to track your spending but will also feed your data into a database monitored by intelligent programs in real time and match shoppers with sales and promotions in stores. But in other cases, enabling previously unconnected devices to access the web will actually make them more useful and efficient. In the image below, I imagined what a web-ehanced home thermostat might look like. In addition to being able to monitor your power usage using Google PowerMeter, you'll also be able to see what your current charges are when it matters to you (i.e. when you're turning up the heat, not when you're sitting in front of a computer).



In another example, imagine being able to see a display of your current bank account balance directly on your debit card (pictured below). This data would of course be protected, and displayed only after passing a biometric security protection system that reads your fingerprint directly on the card. I admit, this idea is likely to be much more touchy due to privacy and security concerns, but I'm fairly sure that something like it will exist in the not-too-distant future.



Like the app-specific future of mobile devices, web-enabled appliances and objects will be designed to be good at one thing but not as general-purpose web browsers.

Since I published Part 1 of The Future of the Web, discussion of augmented reality has increased all over the web. This has been an idea that has gone from concept to reality quicker than anything I've seen before, which is both exciting and even a little bit frightening. After seeing how this technology might be used, I think you'll understand why I feel that way. Augmented reality is "is a field of computer research which deals with the combination of real-world and computer-generated data (virtual reality), where computer graphics objects are blended into real footage in real time (Wikipedia definition)." In other words, it is a technology which will allow you to layer web data over images of the real world, whether through webcams, phones or other devices, in real time. Simply Google this topic and you'll quickly see how many possible applications of this technology, both in nascent stages and purely hypothetical, are already being dreamed up.

In the image below, I imagined what an augmented reality application might display if I pointed my phone's camera at Newfangled's North Carolina office. By combining GPS and landmark recognition technology, my smart phone will not only detect and identify both my location at Newfangled's North Carolina office and my focal point, but will also show web-based information emanating from the office in real time.



The GPS piece already exists, of course, and has enabled working augmented reality applications already, such as one that detects the nearest tube for iPhone users in London. However, the software that would correctly detect and identify the focal point of the image is still in development. Google, for instance, is working on a program for landmark recognition that would learn the identity of a place based upon crowd-sourcing image data and then processing the images to "learn" the attributes of the structure. Also, detecting the actual locations of the people using Twitter and filtering for only those actually at the office when I am looking at it is another missing piece of the puzzle.

Another possibility for augmented reality would be to do for people what we'll be able to do for places and things. In the image below, I imagine what it might look like if I held my phone's camera up to Jason Adams, one of our Project Managers. Potentially, an augmented reality application might be able to identify him using facial recognition software, then match Jason with his profiles on various social networks and websites.



Currently, I have to know a person's name, search for it, and do my own thinking to determine which profiles and pages are actually related to my search. With an application like this one, I could potentially learn quite a bit about a stranger on the bus simply by capturing a quick image. Suddenly, this all got much more creepy, didn't it? As you can see, Jason is not happy about it, and I imagine many would feel the same. It may even lead to a new kind of digital "masking" technology, the natural response from those that don't want to have themselves or their property "augmented" for others.

Of course, any of these technologies could eventually be applied to "smart" contact lenses that would make the transition between physical reality and augmented reality even more seamless. That's not an endorsement, by the way, just a speculation. If it gets to the point where I can't disconnect, I may head for the hills! As you can see from the example above, augmented reality also stirs up many issues related to privacy, which is what I'll be discussing next...