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Christopher Butler
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The Accuracy of the Mean (or on The Wisdom of Crowds)

July 26, 2007 at 8:00 pm by Chris


   Image created by my wife,
   Carolyn.

   The Mark O'Brien version
    of Carolyn's drawing.
Our wise leader, Eric, has previously commented on James Surowieki's book, The Wisdom of Crowds, in his Agency Alliance newsletter from May, 2007 titled The Benefits of Social Media.

The general premise of the book is that accuracy tends to increase as the sources of input grows. So, if many individuals are asked to guess, for example, the weight of an ox, the mean of their collective responses will tend to be much more accurate than any single response. The Ox example, by the way, refers to a specific historical anecdote involving Sir Francis Galton, a 19th century proponent of eugenics, who happened upon a local town fair at which many people were asked to guess the weight of an ox. The crowd's collective guess at the ox's weight was 1187 pounds- just 1 pound off from its actual weight of 1188 lbs! While this may not have fully thwarted his ideas of eugenics as they relate to individuals, it suggested something new about collective 'intelligence.'

If you're an auditory learner, check out this episode from the Radio Lab podcast, which deals with the concepts of emergence and the 'wisdom' of crowds.
Eric applied this idea, in a 'so what?' approach, to our industry- web development. Author Stephen Johnson, in his book, Emergence, agrees. He writes that the internet has shown directly, especially through the rapid ascension of Google, that as collective intelligence coheres, accuracy of results increases. That is why the more information is indexed by Google, the more likely you are to get an accurate result to your search query (provided, of course, that your search query is specific).

Tagssocial-media audio books


Comments


 The artist eternally known as BAZAR July 27, 2007 10:34 AM
I would like to commend Carolyn "Gompers" Butler on her very well executed attempt at capturing the vibrance and exuberant energy of my piece, "Hurry, Hurry... no, Wait", pictured above. When I was composing HHnW I was going through a sordid and confusing time in life. Chris Butler had just beaten me at RISK, on only his first attempt at the game, and a lot of cruel things were said. As usual, I found solace in my utterly raw artistic genius and a true wonder of essential life was once again wrought from my earnest pen's copper ink diffusion. Good try, Gompers, but one can only play with fire so many times before getting burned!
 C. Gompers Butler July 27, 2007 10:54 AM
Bazar, you are clearly an artistic maestro. I can merely only imitate your pure, raw genius- you "virtuoso of the pen." HHnW shines with the brilliance of a million web pixals. Reverentially, I concede to your artistic expertise--Gompers
 Justin July 27, 2007 10:58 AM
I love Carloyn's drawing because of the depth of field she was able to create using only a single line weight. Clearly, she is an artist who understands line, form and perspective. However, the cynic in me believes that if Mark's drawing was signed "Picasso" or "Matisse" it would be selling at Christie's for 3.5 million dollars.