 Christopher Butler Strategy and Resourcing Hi, I'm Chris. I've been working at Newfangled since September, 2004. | Chris Butler's Blog |
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The Future of the Internet
March 26, 2008 at 11:00 am by ChrisJeremiah Owyang posted this morning a question, whether the reader was a "corporatist" or a "purist" in regard to the corporate impact of social media. There is a nice discussion in response to this in his comments section which you can read or participate in here. 
In my comment, I mentioned the book, The Future of the Internet, which takes a big picture view of the internet as it matures due to the impact of trends like social media, and technological developments (here's a more in-depth review of the book). Zittrain considers whether the trajectory will be shaped more by tethered appliances rather than the generative approach of its first decade. Since I tend toward pessimism when it comes to technology's role in society in general (yeah, I just said that), my sense is that we are headed toward a more lock-down oriented phase (corporatist) of the internet, though I'll be happy to be proven wrong. What do you think? |
Tags: social-media software the-future
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DIY Smart Home
March 19, 2008 at 1:30 pm by Chris| Sicknasty also describes this DIY smarthome: Reconfigurable House 2.0 from haque d+r on Vimeo. |
Tags: design video computers the-future
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Ray Kurzweil on "How Technology's Accelerating Power Will Transform Us"
March 7, 2008 at 7:30 am by ChrisTags: video technology the-future
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TEDTalks: World Wide Telescope
February 28, 2008 at 9:00 am by Chris| My blogging has been pretty light this week (mostly sharing videos), and might continue to be for a bit. In the meantime, here is a compelling video from this year's TED conference. This one demos the World Wide Telescope, the thing that reportedly made Robert Scoble weep. |
Tags: software video the-future
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Contact vs. Powers of Ten
February 26, 2008 at 8:00 am by Chris| I recently rented the movie Contact, which I'd definitely recommend, by the way (what a great stimulator of philosophy-of-technology-related conversation!), and couldn't help noticing a similarity between its opening sequence and the Eames short film, Powers of Ten... What do you think? Contact Powers of Ten |
Tags: video the-future
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The Future City of 2057
February 4, 2008 at 10:00 am by Chris
Watch this video which imagines the city of 2057, and all the new technologies that will shape it. This type of thing usually says more about the contemporary zeitgeist than that of 50 years from now. That said, it's reasonable to assume that all the innovations expected in this video would certainly shape the culture of 2057... |
Tags: technology the-future
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Life in the Cloud
January 10, 2008 at 8:30 am by Chris The Cloud refers to the concept of cloud computing, which is achieved by harnessing the collective power of multiple servers to run applications and distribute information to users across the internet, rather than individual users running applications installed on their local systems. In a way, this concept is already the reality for many people who work in web-related fields- especially those who are self-employed and utilized web-based applications as a cost-saving measure. Given the availability of many web app options to replace just about every kind of productivity software on the market, cloud computing becomes just a matter of assembling and connecting various existing online services. Companies like Google and Microsoft have taken this a step further already by creating many tools that are becoming increasingly more integrated. The next step would be to fully move the operating system online, making our hardware- whether a desktop, laptop, ultraportable, phone, etc.- simply a terminal to access the cloud. Some companies are already experimenting with this (see Craythur, Desktoptwo, EyoOS, Glide, Goowy, Orca , Purefect , SSOE , XinDESK, or YouOS among others). 
In a recent interview with Wired, author Nicholas Carr commented on the gathering momentum of the cloud:
"Most people are already there. Young people in particular spend way more time using so-called cloud apps — MySpace, Flickr, Gmail — than running old-fashioned programs on their hard drives. What's amazing is that this shift from private to public software has happened without us even noticing it...Yeah. Welcome to Google Earth. A bunch of bright computer scientists and AI experts in Silicon Valley are not only rewiring our computers — they're dictating the future terms of our culture. It's terrifying...The scariest thing about Stanley Kubrick's vision wasn't that computers started to act like people but that people had started to act like computers. We're beginning to process information as if we're nodes; it's all about the speed of locating and reading data. We're transferring our intelligence into the machine, and the machine is transferring its way of thinking into us. .."Some people have reacted strongly to Carr's statements, but I think he's basically correct about the two general statements he made: many people are already well immersed in the cloud, and this shift in capability is affecting our thinking and behavior. Whether the effect is positive or negative, though, is certainly open for debate.
Update: 02/01/2008: Read this article from CNet.com about the future of web-based software for the workplace. 04/04/2008: Paul Boutin feels that Web-based applications are all well and good, but there's still no beating the desktop computer. |
Tags: the-future google social-media software privacy computers
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Predicting the 2008 Presidential Election
December 2, 2007 at 6:30 pm by Chris
According to an announcement made on November 30th, three European cryptographers claim to have predicted the winner of the 2008 United States presidential election... using a Sony PlayStation 3! Of course, they've encrypted their prediction in an MD5 hash of a PDF document which is part of a group of PDF's containing the potential winners' names and released the hash for public consideration until next year. As explained by Nolan, this is a witty proof of concept for how MD5 collision is possible (that the hash could actually be the same for multiple documents), hence, this prediction cannot be wrong! For more information, click here.By the way, I have already correctly predicted whether this year will have a white Christmas, and will be happy to release my prediction to the public on December 26th... |
Tags: technology the-future
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A Permanent Work in Progress
November 9, 2007 at 7:30 am by ChrisI borrowed the title for this post from Harry McCracken, who used it in his Techlog column in PC World's December issue. He writes:"More than any communications medium before it, the Web is a permanent work in progress that's always new." 
McCracken goes on to write how current technology is allowing for more and more connectivity throughout the world, and what that will mean for consumers and ISP's. In fact, he notes that the United States is not necessarily on top in terms of the average user's connectivity power. For example, the Communications Workers of America reports that the average American download speed is 1.9 megabits per second, far less than 61 mbps in Japan, 45 mbps in Korea, or even 7.9 mbps in Canada. However, his comment also generally pertains to the core of what the internet really is, and the reality that we confront daily at Newfangled as we develop technology for use on the web. The web is a work in progress indeed, and that means that everything we build for use on the internet is also a work in progress. Your Proximity to the 'Net
However, this potential 'omniweb' may not be such a great thing for those of us who like having some boundaries between our work and time off. I can't help but fear that someday 'not having access to my email' or 'not being in cellphone range' might not be valid reasons to not work while on vacation, or that no matter where I am in the world, I might be easily findable. I also wouldn't mind being able to escape from the ubiquity of technology every now and then, either, but from the looks of things this is going to only become more difficult. Even now, we'll soon be seeing good ol' Google at the gas pump. Helpful, yes, but just one more step towards an all-Google-all-the-time lifestyle... Your Proximity to Me Via the 'Net Another aspect to this work in progress is that because internet access is available in more places, more can be accomplished (theoretically) by more people in groups regardless of the locations of individuals. One immediate caveat I would propose is that often work relationships are enhanced by personal, face-to-face contact (see my post, 'Social Media Tools and Synthetic? Communities' for more on this). However, I also was able to work for Newfangled for an entire year while living in Penang, Malaysia, thanks to Telekom Malaysia, Skype, and my Dell laptop. Oh, and of course, the flexibility of my employers! 
Being thousands of miles away from friends, family and co-workers didn't seem so extreme because I was able to communicate with everyone so easily. I would call people using my Skype Out account and nobody ever seemed to notice. In fact, I'm not sure I ever used a landline while I lived overseas! Motoring down many streets in Penang also demonstrated to me that others were catching on, as a common sight there were many support centers being set up by companies like Dell, SeaGate, Sony, etc. (So, don't be surprised if a friendly Malaysian helps you next time your gadget's on the fritz.)This proximity idea has also enabled us to serve our clients better. We can now more efficiently work with one of our agency partner's clients, even if they are in Dublin and we are in humble little Carrboro, NC. For example, in addition to having integrated VPBX phone systems and BlackBerry's into our daily work life, we also use Adobe Connect frequently to demo our CMS to prospective clients, as well as to conduct training sessions to current clients without having to be in the same physical location. Other tools, like Mantis and DotProject allow us to maintain active projects even when the client, agency, developer and project manager are all in different places. It's Still a Work In Progress Despite all these achievements and potential, the reality is that the internet is still a work in progress. GMail will still go down sometimes. Google Maps will still not find a location every now and then, or leave you frustrated by bad directions. Facebook will reorganize your photo albums by accident. Your blog will disappear. The site you're on might not work in Internet Explorer but will work in FireFox (or maybe the other way around). Your BlackBerry just won't work when you're in the ski lodge. You will get spam. Lot's of it. Embarassing spam. Your email newsletter won't look the same in everyone's inbox. Your video might not play back perfectly. Your online store might need to be rethought now that a new payment gateway is available. I could go on and on... Suffice it to say that on the 'net you will have problems, but the point is that the internet is a work in progress and we are all participating in the effort to make it better... except for the creators of the animated mortgage ads. They are making the internet worse. |
Tags: the-future web-development social-media software google
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Predicting the Future
August 6, 2007 at 12:00 pm by Chris
In his 2001 book, Time Travel in Einstein's Universe, astrophysicist J. Richard Gott includes a chapter on predicting the future based upon the current length of a phenomenon's existence. The idea, based upon the Copernican concept that, as observers, we are looking from a non-special vantage point, proposes that one can determine with a 95% rate of accuracy the future span of existence for any phenomenon.Gott realized this during a 1969 visit to the Berlin Wall, when it occurred to him that he could make a guess as to how much longer the wall would exist based upon knowing that it had already existed for 8 years. He reasoned that since there was nothing special about his visit, he was observing the wall at some random point int time between the beginning and end of its existence. To play it safe, he speculated that there was a 95% chance that he was observing the wall during the middle 95% of its existence (or in other words, that there was a 95% chance that he was not viewing the wall during the first 2.5% or last 2.5% of its existence). Ok, so what's so special about that? Gott reasoned, then, that he could use these percentages relative to the amount of time the wall had already existed to predict how much longer it might exist. 
Left is a diagram of several phenomena and their potential future lifespans based upon Gott's Copernican prediction method, which he submitted for the January 2000 issue of Time magazine. He uses the 95% chance that (in the year 2000) he was observing these things from a random point during the middle 95% of their existence to estimate how much longer they might exist. According to this method, the internet, based upon its 31 years of existence in 2000 was 95% likely to exist for more than .75 more years but less than 1,209 more years. I have added Newfangled Web Factory with today's 2007 predictions to the list. According to this formula, Newfangled will have a greater potential future lifespan in 2010 because it will have existed for longer then than it has now.Note that the longer something exists, the longer it is likely to exist! As Gott puts it, "Things that have been around for a long time tend to stay around for a long time." Incidentally, he cites the original list of the 7 Wonders of the World, cited in approximately 150 C.E. during the time of Antipater of Sidon, as an example: "Two of the Seven Wonders (the Hanging Gardens of Babylon and the Colossus of Rhodes) no longer existed at the time the list was made, but five still did: the statue of Zeus at Olympia, the temple of Artemis at Ephesus, the mausoleum at Halicarnassus, the Pharos of Alexandria, and the pyramids of Egypt. Of the first four wonders that had each been in existence for less than 400 years at the time the list was made, not one is still here today. But the oldest, the pyramids, which were then 2,400 years old, have survived." I'll take this opportunity to point out that Newfangled's 12-year lifespan puts it in 'pyramidian' scale in terms of web development companies! |
Tags: books newfangled the-future
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The Future is a Big Table...
June 22, 2007 at 8:59 am by Chris Well, when you put it like that, it does seem pretty stupid... This video is a to-the-point commentary on Microsoft's latest wow-inspiring technology. |
Tags: software computers the-future
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The Future...? (Redux)
June 1, 2007 at 9:14 AM by Chris This video shows a more realized application of some of the 'wow-inspiring' imagery in the video I linked to on March 22.It's amazing how quickly this technology is changing! When I saw Minority Report, and all the examples of how computers will be more seamlessly integrated into the architecture of our day-to-day lives, my reaction was one of interest but I couldn't help but think that these things were a bit further off than Spielberg's consultants might have thought. But at this point, I feel differently. Even Google's simplification of interface with Gmail pushed user interface design in the direction of minimizing options and 'clutter' because it's search tool was strong enough to find what you were looking for without the cascading file folder approach to organization. The only remaining thing that I would like to see increase at the same rate would be our ability to sustain all this technology using less resources rather than more... |
Tags: video technology the-future
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The Future of Intel’s Ultra-Mobile PC
May 10, 2007 at 1:00 pm by Chris Take a look at this video by Intel giving us an imaginative preview of what's to come in mobile computing. I'd really like to see some of this stuff happen, but I am not a huge fan of the wearable devices. What do you think? |
Tags: video technology computers the-future
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The Future...?
March 22, 2007 at 4:05 PM by cb
This link has been floating around here at Newfangled. The video shows some incredible touch-screen and data visualization technology.(Everyone here was pretty excited about it, except for Justin, who freelances for Steven Spielberg on the side, Forrest, who thought the iPhone was more futury; Scott, Dave and Able, who apparently watched a different video about jumbo shrimp; and Mark, who was just grouchy about its soundtrack and commented, "apparently music really sucks in the Future. " Eric didn't waste any time watching it because he's trying to get the Newfangled site to do all those tricks right now! ...Actually, I guess that just leaves me and Dan who thought it was cool. |
Tags: video technology the-future
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